Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 22 July 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Red Bull Salzburg have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Red Bull Salzburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record at Red Bull Arena: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Austria Vienna (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Vienna haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Red Bull Salzburg. A 1.20 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (2.50 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 50% versus Austria Vienna 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 59% | Austria Vienna 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.64 xG and Austria Vienna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.136 / defence 0.908 | Austria Vienna attack 1.027 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.214. Data: 22 Red Bull Salzburg games / 22 Austria Vienna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 49% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 26%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Austria Vienna 3.85. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Red Bull Salzburg 30% | Austria Vienna 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jul 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 49% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.64 / Austria Vienna 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.136 / def 0.908 | Austria Vienna attack 1.027 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Austria Vienna xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 July 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg 3 - 0 Austria Vienna.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 49% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.03x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.08
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.77
1.13
Austria Vienna xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.13 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 25W 5D 2L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. Red Bull Salzburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Austria Vienna's form line: 11W 13D 8L from 32 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. Austria Vienna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Vienna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.75 PPG from 16 outings (14W 2D 0L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 6D 5L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.38 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 66%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Pre-Season
Austria Vienna
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 5D 2L in their last 32 games (2.50 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 11W 13D 8L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.75 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Red Bull Salzburg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Red Bull Salzburg
1
Draws
1
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, Austria Vienna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 44%, Austria Vienna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 38% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 56% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 38% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 3-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.64 xG and Austria Vienna 1.13 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Vienna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Austria Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 49% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 26%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 59%, Austria Vienna 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.