Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt meet at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record at Red Bull Arena: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Austria Klagenfurt have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Red Bull Salzburg's 2.70 PPG return is 2.20 points per game ahead of Austria Klagenfurt's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 48% versus Austria Klagenfurt 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 61% | Austria Klagenfurt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.99 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.366 / defence 0.911 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.841 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.239. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Red Bull Salzburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Red Bull Salzburg games / 22 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 62% | Draw 21% | Austria Klagenfurt 17%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Austria Klagenfurt 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Red Bull Salzburg 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 62% | Draw 21% | Austria Klagenfurt 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.99 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.366 / def 0.911 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.841 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Austria Klagenfurt xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 62% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg's attack at 1.37x the league average against Austria Klagenfurt's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (0.84x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.73
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.94
0.95
Austria Klagenfurt xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
14%
7.30
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
2%
42.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.95 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Red Bull Salzburg come into this having played 31 games, going 25W 4D 2L for 2.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.13 PPG from 31 outings (8W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Red Bull Salzburg's home form reads 14W 1D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.35 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt in 71%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 4D 2L in their last 31 games (2.55 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 8W 11D 12L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.87 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Austria Klagenfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Austria Klagenfurt in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 40%, Austria Klagenfurt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Red Bull Salzburg and 67% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Austria Klagenfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Red Bull Arena, Championship Round - 10, as Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Klagenfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.99 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.95 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.37 / defence 0.91 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.84 / defence 1.27, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 62% | Draw 21% | Austria Klagenfurt 17%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 61%, Austria Klagenfurt 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.