Rapid Vienna 5-2 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees WSG Wattens travel to Allianz Stadion to take on Rapid Vienna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 2W 2D 5L from 9 Bundesliga matches — 0.89 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 games at Allianz Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 1W 5D 3L from 9 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.89 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rapid Vienna 0.89 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.89 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
WSG Wattens trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 44% and WSG Wattens 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 56% | WSG Wattens 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.60 xG and WSG Wattens 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.854 / defence 1.159 | WSG Wattens attack 0.722 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.396. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.551 — this is suppressing Rapid Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Rapid Vienna games / 9 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 44% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 24%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | WSG Wattens 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 20% | WSG Wattens 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 44% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.60 / WSG Wattens 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.854 / def 1.159 | WSG Wattens attack 0.722 / def 1.551 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.17
WSG Wattens xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Rapid Vienna 5 - 2 WSG Wattens.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens part of?
Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 44% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-5D-3L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.89 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.15
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.77
1.17
WSG Wattens xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
5%
20.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.17 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 3L across 9 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 0.89 PPG, WSG Wattens on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Rapid Vienna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.22 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 1W 5D 3L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or WSG Wattens away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.50 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Rapid Vienna won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rapid Vienna
3
Draws
0
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 25%, WSG Wattens 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Rapid Vienna and 75% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 75% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 75% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 5-2 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat WSG Wattens 5-2 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.60 xG and WSG Wattens 1.17 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against WSG Wattens attack 0.72 / defence 1.55, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 44% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 24%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 56%, WSG Wattens 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 0.89 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.