Rapid Vienna 2-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC meet at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's home record at Allianz Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.30 for Wolfsberger AC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 68% and Wolfsberger AC 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 60% | Wolfsberger AC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.61 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.150 / defence 1.114 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.770 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Rapid Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Rapid Vienna games / 22 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 50% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 25%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 4.00. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 60% | Wolfsberger AC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 50% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.61 / Wolfsberger AC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.150 / def 1.114 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.770 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Wolfsberger AC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Rapid Vienna 2 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 50% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.77x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.03
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.67
1.06
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
5%
20.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.06 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 8D 8L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (11W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.48 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 6W 2D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.44 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 9W 8D 8L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 4D 10L in their last 25 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.67 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Rapid Vienna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 5-1 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Rapid Vienna 2-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 50%, Wolfsberger AC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Rapid Vienna and 58% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 50% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out Wolfsberger AC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.61 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.15 / defence 1.11 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 50% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 25%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 60%, Wolfsberger AC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.40 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.