Rapid Vienna 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sturm Graz have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sturm Graz in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 70% and Sturm Graz 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 57% | Sturm Graz 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.35 xG and Sturm Graz 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.915 / defence 0.894 | Sturm Graz attack 0.943 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.287. Data: 26 Rapid Vienna games / 27 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 43% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 30%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sturm Graz 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Rapid Vienna 60% | Sturm Graz 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 43% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.35 / Sturm Graz 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.915 / def 0.894 | Sturm Graz attack 0.943 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sturm Graz xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 43% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (0.94x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.68
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.43
1.08
Sturm Graz xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.08 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 14W 12D 11L from 37 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 9L across 37 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.73 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 9W 5D 4L from 18 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 7W 6D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.89 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 14W 12D 11L in their last 37 games (1.46 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.78 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 56%, Sturm Graz 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Rapid Vienna) and 61% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Rapid Vienna's games and 72% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 61% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sturm Graz defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 1-2 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.35 xG and Sturm Graz 1.08 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Sturm Graz attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 43% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 30%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 57%, Sturm Graz 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.