Rapid Vienna 3-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees SCR Altach travel to Allianz Stadion to take on Rapid Vienna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 February 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
SCR Altach — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rapid Vienna 1.40 PPG, SCR Altach 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rapid Vienna, 0 for SCR Altach and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Rapid Vienna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 65% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 57% | SCR Altach 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.77 xG and SCR Altach 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.047 / defence 0.953 | SCR Altach attack 0.917 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.450. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Rapid Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Rapid Vienna games / 39 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 49% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 27%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | SCR Altach 3.70. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 50% | SCR Altach 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 49% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.77 / SCR Altach 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.047 / def 0.953 | SCR Altach attack 0.917 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.27
SCR Altach xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Rapid Vienna 3 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach part of?
Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 49% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach?
Record (2 meetings): Rapid Vienna 2W | Draws 0 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.29
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.04
1.27
SCR Altach xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.27 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 13D 17L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.90 PPG from 49 outings (11W 11D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 11W 5D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (7W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.90 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 games (1.43 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 11D 27L in their last 49 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or SCR Altach away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.58 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Rapid Vienna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 8, SCR Altach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Rapid Vienna 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 58%, SCR Altach 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Rapid Vienna and 71% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 42% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 71% of SCR Altach's.
Do Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat SCR Altach 3-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.77 xG and SCR Altach 1.27 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against SCR Altach attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 49% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 27%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 57%, SCR Altach 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.