Rapid Vienna 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg meet at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's home record at Allianz Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 10W 0D 0L from 10 away outings — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Red Bull Salzburg are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 66% versus Red Bull Salzburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.39 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.193 / defence 0.970 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.434 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.336. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.434 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 29% | Draw 23% | Red Bull Salzburg 49%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.04. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 29% | Draw 23% | Red Bull Salzburg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.39 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.193 / def 0.970 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.434 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Red Bull Salzburg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 29% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rapid Vienna's attack rating (1.19) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.43x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
29%
3.47
23%
4.43
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.25
1.86
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.47
29%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
16%
6.41
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
4%
22.24
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.86 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 23W 14D 21L from 58 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 44W 11D 3L across 58 games — 2.47 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 14W 6D 9L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 23W 3D 3L across 29 trips, a 2.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.31 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 23W 14D 21L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 44W 11D 3L in their last 58 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.66 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rapid Vienna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
3
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 5, Red Bull Salzburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 1-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 59%, Red Bull Salzburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Rapid Vienna and 62% for Red Bull Salzburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rapid Vienna's games and 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 5, as Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.39 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.86 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.43 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 29% | Draw 23% | Red Bull Salzburg 49%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 60%, Red Bull Salzburg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.