Rapid Vienna 3-2 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host Lask Linz at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rapid Vienna — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 3W 0D 3L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Rapid Vienna are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Lask Linz in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 58% versus Lask Linz 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rapid Vienna 50% | Lask Linz 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.44 xG and Lask Linz 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.079 / defence 1.204 | Lask Linz attack 0.682 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.420. Data: 12 Rapid Vienna games / 12 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 31% | Lask Linz 28%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Lask Linz 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 33% | Lask Linz 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 31% | Lask Linz 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.44 / Lask Linz 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.079 / def 1.204 | Lask Linz attack 0.682 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lask Linz xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Rapid Vienna 3 - 2 Lask Linz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 41% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.0%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.21
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.60
1.17
Lask Linz xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.17 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 4D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.08 PPG, Lask Linz on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Rapid Vienna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 0.83 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Lask Linz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.80 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 40%, Lask Linz 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Rapid Vienna and 20% for Lask Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 60% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 20% of Lask Linz's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out Lask Linz 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Lask Linz 3-2 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.44 xG and Lask Linz 1.17 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lask Linz outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 1.20 against Lask Linz attack 0.68 / defence 1.08, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 31% | Lask Linz 28%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 50%, Lask Linz 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.08 PPG, Lask Linz 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.