Rapid Vienna 0-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host FC BW Linz at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 7W 1D 2L at Allianz Stadion — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC BW Linz stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Rapid Vienna have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rapid Vienna, 1 for FC BW Linz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with FC BW Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 46% versus FC BW Linz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 35% | FC BW Linz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 2.02 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.086 / defence 0.857 | FC BW Linz attack 1.000 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.105. Data: 36 Rapid Vienna games / 36 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | FC BW Linz 16%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | FC BW Linz 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 50% | FC BW Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | FC BW Linz 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Rapid Vienna 2.02 / FC BW Linz 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.086 / def 0.857 | FC BW Linz attack 1.000 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC BW Linz xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 61% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz?
Record (3 meetings): Rapid Vienna 2W | Draws 0 | FC BW Linz 1W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.09x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC BW Linz's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.44
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.96
0.95
FC BW Linz xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
2%
46.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.95 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Rapid Vienna have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 18W 18D 10L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC BW Linz's form line: 12W 13D 21L from 46 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rapid Vienna are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rapid Vienna have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (10W 8D 5L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 4W 5D 14L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.09 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 18D 10L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or FC BW Linz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.65 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Rapid Vienna won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting FC BW Linz specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
3
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz?
From 8 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when FC BW Linz 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 52%, FC BW Linz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rapid Vienna) and 52% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FC BW Linz in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 56% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 52% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC BW Linz defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat Rapid Vienna 0-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 2.02 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rapid Vienna fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against FC BW Linz attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | FC BW Linz 16%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a FC BW Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 35%, FC BW Linz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with FC BW Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.