Lask Linz 0-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Lask Linz welcome Wolfsberger AC to Raiffeisen Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 1W 2D 2L this season (5 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Lask Linz) versus 1.20 (Wolfsberger AC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 70% and Wolfsberger AC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 30% | Wolfsberger AC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.55 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.869 / defence 1.178 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.920 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.406. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Lask Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Lask Linz games / 10 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 35% | Draw 31% | Wolfsberger AC 34%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Wolfsberger AC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 80% | Wolfsberger AC 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 35% | Draw 31% | Wolfsberger AC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 65% | xG Lask Linz 1.55 / Wolfsberger AC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.869 / def 1.178 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.920 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Wolfsberger AC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Lask Linz 0 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 35% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.87x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
35%
2.84
31%
3.27
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.07
1.52
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.52 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 4D 4L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.00 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.40 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.00 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lask Linz
0
Draws
7
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lask Linz at 75%, Wolfsberger AC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Lask Linz and 75% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lask Linz's games and 75% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lask Linz's matches and 75% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Lask Linz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Lask Linz 0-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.55 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.52 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lask Linz fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.87 / defence 1.18 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.92 / defence 1.35, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 35% | Draw 31% | Wolfsberger AC 34%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 30%, Wolfsberger AC 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.00 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.