Lask Linz 0-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Lask Linz's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, TSV Hartberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 63% and TSV Hartberg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 51% | TSV Hartberg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 2.01 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.178 / defence 1.035 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.699 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.716. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Lask Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Lask Linz games / 31 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 53% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 20%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | TSV Hartberg 5.00. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 80% | TSV Hartberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 53% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Lask Linz 2.01 / TSV Hartberg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.178 / def 1.035 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.699 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.716 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.24
TSV Hartberg xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 0 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 53% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.18x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.70x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.72
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.25
1.24
TSV Hartberg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
3%
36.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.24 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 15D 13L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 0.98 PPG from 41 outings (9W 13D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Lask Linz against 0.98 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.27 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 13W 15D 13L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 13D 19L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.60 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
5
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 60%, TSV Hartberg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lask Linz) and 55% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lask Linz's games and 60% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lask Linz's matches and 55% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Lask Linz 0-3 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 2.01 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 2.0 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.70 / defence 1.25, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 53% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 20%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a TSV Hartberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 51%, TSV Hartberg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.32 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.