Lask Linz 1-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.75. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.25 for Lask Linz, 1.00 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Lask Linz register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, TSV Hartberg in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 75% and TSV Hartberg 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lask Linz 25% | TSV Hartberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.39 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.850 / defence 1.268 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.113 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.288. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Lask Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Lask Linz games / 4 TSV Hartberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 26% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 45%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 2.22. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 75% | TSV Hartberg 75% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 26% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Lask Linz 1.39 / TSV Hartberg 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.850 / def 1.268 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.113 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.82
TSV Hartberg xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 1 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 26% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-D-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.85x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.11x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
26%
3.80
29%
3.45
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.20
1.82
TSV Hartberg xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
4%
23.33
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.82 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.00 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
5
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Lask Linz, 75% for TSV Hartberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Lask Linz) and 50% (TSV Hartberg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lask Linz's games and 75% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Lask Linz's recent games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.39 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.82 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.11 / defence 1.27, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 26% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 45%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 25%, TSV Hartberg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.25 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.