Lask Linz 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Lask Linz are significantly better at Raiffeisen Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sturm Graz — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 64% and Sturm Graz 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 53% | Sturm Graz 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.16 xG and Sturm Graz 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.207 / defence 1.101 | Sturm Graz attack 0.965 / defence 0.681. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.575. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.681 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Lask Linz games / 37 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 26% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 49%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Sturm Graz 2.04. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 90% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 26% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Lask Linz 1.16 / Sturm Graz 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.207 / def 1.101 | Sturm Graz attack 0.965 / def 0.681 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.575 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Sturm Graz xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Lask Linz 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 26% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.21x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
26%
3.83
25%
4.04
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.83
1.67
Sturm Graz xG
3.83
26%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
5%
20.41
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.67 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 15W 17D 15L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 25W 13D 9L from 47 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lask Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 10W 8D 5L from 23 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.85 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 15W 17D 15L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 25W 13D 9L in their last 47 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.57 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 61%, Sturm Graz 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Lask Linz and 56% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 30%; Lask Linz have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lask Linz's games and 65% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Lask Linz's matches and 56% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Lask Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.16 xG and Sturm Graz 1.67 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.21 / defence 1.10 against Sturm Graz attack 0.96 / defence 0.68, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 26% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 49%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 53%, Sturm Graz 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.