Lask Linz 1-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 1.67 PPG versus Sturm Graz's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lask Linz register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 67% and Sturm Graz 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 0% | Sturm Graz 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.25 xG and Sturm Graz 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.889 / defence 1.113 | Sturm Graz attack 1.145 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.341. Data: 3 Lask Linz games / 3 Sturm Graz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 25% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 45%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Sturm Graz 2.22. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 67% | Sturm Graz 100% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 25% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Lask Linz 1.25 / Sturm Graz 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.889 / def 1.113 | Sturm Graz attack 1.145 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Sturm Graz xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Lask Linz 1 - 3 Sturm Graz.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 25% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
25%
4.03
30%
3.30
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.96
1.71
Sturm Graz xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
4%
22.26
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.71 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 1W 2D 0L record — W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.67 PPG, Sturm Graz on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. Sturm Graz's attacking output running into Lask Linz's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Lask Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lask Linz at 67%, Sturm Graz at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Lask Linz) and 100% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lask Linz's games and 100% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lask Linz's recent games and 100% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Lask Linz 1-3 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.25 xG and Sturm Graz 1.71 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Sturm Graz attack 1.15 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 25% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 45%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 0%, Sturm Graz 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.67 PPG, Sturm Graz 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.