Lask Linz 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lask Linz at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Raiffeisen Arena plays host to Lask Linz versus Ried in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lask Linz have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ried's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Lask Linz's favour (2.10 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lask Linz lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ried — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 60% and Ried 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 53% | Ried 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 2.00 xG and Ried 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.287 / defence 0.888 | Ried attack 0.604 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.432. Lask Linz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 28 Lask Linz games / 28 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 66% | Draw 20% | Ried 13%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Ried 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Lask Linz (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 70% | Ried 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 66% | Draw 20% | Ried 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Lask Linz 2.00 / Ried 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.287 / def 0.888 | Ried attack 0.604 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Ried xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Ried kick off?
Lask Linz vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Ried?
Lask Linz 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is Lask Linz vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Ried part of?
Lask Linz vs Ried is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 66% chance of winning, Ried a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lask Linz and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Ried?
Record (4 meetings): Lask Linz 1W | Draws 1 | Ried 2W.
What form are Lask Linz and Ried in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ried (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.29x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.60x) against Lask Linz's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
66%
1.51
20%
4.91
13%
7.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.76
0.77
Ried xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
7.42
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
2%
54.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.77 for Ried, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Ried?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz's recent record stands at 13W 13D 12L from 38 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 9W 14D 15L across 38 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.08 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lask Linz have managed 9W 5D 5L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 2W 5D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.13 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Ried in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
Ried
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Ried in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 13W 13D 12L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while Ried have gone 9W 14D 15L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Ried away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.68 PPG; Ried away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lask Linz
4
Draws
3
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Ried?
From 8 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 1, Ried have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ried 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 58%, Ried 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lask Linz) and 32% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz have failed to score in 26% of games; Ried in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lask Linz's games and 53% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Lask Linz's recent games and 32% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Ried tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ried in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and Ried finished level at 1-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 2.00 xG and Ried 0.77 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.29 / defence 0.89 against Ried attack 0.60 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 66% | Draw 20% | Ried 13%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 53%, Ried 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.37 PPG, Ried 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Ried (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.