Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Rapid Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.70 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Rapid Vienna trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 62% and Rapid Vienna 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 50% | Rapid Vienna 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.26 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.946 / defence 0.996 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.929 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.336. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 37% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 36%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Rapid Vienna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 70% | Rapid Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 37% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Lask Linz 1.26 / Rapid Vienna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.946 / def 0.996 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.929 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Rapid Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz 3 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 37% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.70
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.49
1.24
Rapid Vienna xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.24 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 20W 22D 16L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 23W 15D 20L from 58 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.41 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (12W 8D 8L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 9W 8D 11L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.60 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 22D 16L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.57 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, Rapid Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lask Linz at 61%, Rapid Vienna at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lask Linz) and 57% (Rapid Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lask Linz's games and 71% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Lask Linz's matches and 57% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Rapid Vienna 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.26 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 37% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 36%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 50%, Rapid Vienna 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.41 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.