Lask Linz 0-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Lask Linz take on Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Austria Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 0W 4D 2L from 6 Bundesliga matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 1.00 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 0.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lask Linz register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Austria Vienna in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 67% and Austria Vienna 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lask Linz 17% | Austria Vienna 33%). Note also that Austria Vienna surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Lask Linz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.16 xG and Austria Vienna 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.854 / defence 1.179 | Austria Vienna attack 0.794 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.314. Data: 6 Lask Linz games / 6 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 31% | Draw 36% | Austria Vienna 34%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Austria Vienna 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 100% | Austria Vienna 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 31% | Draw 36% | Austria Vienna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 53% | xG Lask Linz 1.16 / Austria Vienna 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.854 / def 1.179 | Austria Vienna attack 0.794 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Austria Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz 0 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 31% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lask Linz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.17 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 0W-4D-2L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.85x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.26
36%
2.82
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.39
1.23
Austria Vienna xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.23 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lask Linz come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 3D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (0W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.00 PPG, Austria Vienna on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lask Linz's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 0W 4D 2L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 0.67 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when Lask Linz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
3
Draws
2
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, Austria Vienna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 0-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lask Linz at 100%, Austria Vienna at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lask Linz) and 67% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lask Linz's games and 67% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lask Linz's recent games and 67% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Lask Linz 0-2 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.16 xG and Austria Vienna 1.23 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Austria Vienna attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 31% | Draw 36% | Austria Vienna 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 17%, Austria Vienna 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.00 PPG, Austria Vienna 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.