Lask Linz 1-3 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Austria Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Raiffeisen Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 1.70 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Lask Linz have won 2, Austria Vienna 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Austria Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 52% versus Austria Vienna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 48% | Austria Vienna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.29 xG and Austria Vienna 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.048 / defence 1.217 | Austria Vienna attack 0.850 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.140. Data: 36 Lask Linz games / 36 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 39% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Vienna 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 70% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 39% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Lask Linz 1.29 / Austria Vienna 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.048 / def 1.217 | Austria Vienna attack 0.850 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Austria Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz 1 - 3 Austria Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 39% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lask Linz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Record (5 meetings): Lask Linz 2W | Draws 2 | Austria Vienna 1W.
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.05x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.58
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Austria Vienna xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.18 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lask Linz come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 12D 14L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.72 PPG from 46 outings (22W 13D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.57 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lask Linz's home form reads 11W 5D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.26 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 22W 13D 11L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.65 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when Lask Linz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
3
Draws
2
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, Austria Vienna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 0-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 48%, Austria Vienna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lask Linz) and 35% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 44% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lask Linz's recent games and 35% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Lask Linz 1-3 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.29 xG and Austria Vienna 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Austria Vienna attack 0.85 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 39% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 33%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 48%, Austria Vienna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.57 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.