Lask Linz 3-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Austria Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 1.40 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lask Linz have won 0, Austria Vienna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 63% and Austria Vienna 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 50% | Austria Vienna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.40 xG and Austria Vienna 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.956 / defence 1.000 | Austria Vienna attack 1.029 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.339. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 38% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 37%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Austria Vienna 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 50% | Austria Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 38% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Lask Linz 1.40 / Austria Vienna 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.956 / def 1.000 | Austria Vienna attack 1.029 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Austria Vienna xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz 3 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 38% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lask Linz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Record (1 meetings): Lask Linz 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.96x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
38%
2.64
25%
3.94
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.78
1.38
Austria Vienna xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.38 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lask Linz come into this having played 62 games, going 21W 24D 17L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.42 PPG from 62 outings (22W 22D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.40 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lask Linz's home form reads 14W 8D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (9W 12D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.56 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 68%.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 21W 24D 17L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 22W 22D 18L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.61 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when Lask Linz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
3
Draws
2
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, Austria Vienna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 0-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 58%, Austria Vienna 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lask Linz) and 58% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz have failed to score in 26% of games; Austria Vienna in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lask Linz's games and 64% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lask Linz's matches and 58% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Lask Linz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Austria Vienna 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.40 xG and Austria Vienna 1.38 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Austria Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 38% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 37%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 50%, Austria Vienna 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.40 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.