Lask Linz 3-1 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 10 sees Admira Wacker travel to Raiffeisen Arena to take on Lask Linz. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lask Linz's home record at Raiffeisen Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Admira Wacker have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Admira Wacker's form when playing away from home: 2W 8D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.10 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lask Linz, 0 for Admira Wacker and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Admira Wacker trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 52% versus Admira Wacker 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 45% | Admira Wacker 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.12 xG and Admira Wacker 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.879 / defence 1.072 | Admira Wacker attack 0.884 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.239. Data: 22 Lask Linz games / 22 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 34% | Draw 28% | Admira Wacker 37%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Admira Wacker 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Admira Wacker as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 30% | Admira Wacker 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 34% | Draw 28% | Admira Wacker 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Lask Linz 1.12 / Admira Wacker 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.879 / def 1.072 | Admira Wacker attack 0.884 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Admira Wacker xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker kick off?
Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 20 May 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Lask Linz 3 - 1 Admira Wacker.
Where is Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker part of?
Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 34% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lask Linz and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Admira Wacker?
Record (3 meetings): Lask Linz 2W | Draws 1 | Admira Wacker 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and Admira Wacker in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Admira Wacker's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.52
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.29
1.17
Admira Wacker xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.17 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lask Linz come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 12D 11L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Admira Wacker sit at 1.00 PPG from 31 outings (6W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.16 PPG, Admira Wacker on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lask Linz's home form reads 5W 5D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Admira Wacker have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (3W 9D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Lask Linz are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.13 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Current Season
Admira Wacker
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 8W 12D 11L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 6W 13D 12L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Admira Wacker away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.33 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lask Linz and Admira Wacker runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Lask Linz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lask Linz
1
Draws
0
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 3, Admira Wacker have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Lask Linz 3-1 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Admira Wacker?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 47%, Admira Wacker 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lask Linz) and 53% (Admira Wacker).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Lask Linz's games and 73% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lask Linz's recent games and 53% of Admira Wacker's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Admira Wacker.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Admira Wacker 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.12 xG and Admira Wacker 1.17 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.88 / defence 1.07 against Admira Wacker attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 34% | Draw 28% | Admira Wacker 37%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 45%, Admira Wacker 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.16 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.