Austria Vienna 3-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 64% and TSV Hartberg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 54% | TSV Hartberg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.106 / defence 0.969 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.868 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.383. Data: 40 Austria Vienna games / 40 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 29%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 3.45. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 70% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Austria Vienna 1.50 / TSV Hartberg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.106 / def 0.969 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.868 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.16
TSV Hartberg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna 3 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 45% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.91
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.66
1.16
TSV Hartberg xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.16 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 18W 18D 14L from 50 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 25L across 50 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 10W 9D 6L from 25 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 6W 7D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.22 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 11W 14D 25L in their last 50 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.56 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 6, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 72%, TSV Hartberg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Austria Vienna) and 52% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Austria Vienna's games and 52% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 52% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Vienna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 3-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.16 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 29%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 54%, TSV Hartberg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.