Austria Vienna 2-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 5D 2L this season (9 games, 1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.30 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Austria Vienna register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 63% and TSV Hartberg 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 37% | TSV Hartberg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.33 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.998 / defence 1.159 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.885 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.388. Data: 19 Austria Vienna games / 19 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 34% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 39%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | TSV Hartberg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 78% | TSV Hartberg 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 34% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Austria Vienna 1.33 / TSV Hartberg 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.998 / def 1.159 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.885 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.42
TSV Hartberg xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna 2 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 34% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.70
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.76
1.42
TSV Hartberg xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.42 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 5W 9D 5L from 19 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 7L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.26 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 2W 5D 2L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.53 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 5W 9D 5L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.22 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 6, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Vienna at 78%, TSV Hartberg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Austria Vienna) and 44% (TSV Hartberg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Austria Vienna's games and 67% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 2-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.33 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.42 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 34% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 39%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 37%, TSV Hartberg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.26 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.