Austria Vienna 0-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Sturm Graz in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 66% and Sturm Graz 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 51% | Sturm Graz 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.39 xG and Sturm Graz 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.216 / defence 0.856 | Sturm Graz attack 0.947 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.681. Data: 31 Austria Vienna games / 31 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 35% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 33%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Sturm Graz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 80% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 35% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Austria Vienna 1.39 / Sturm Graz 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.216 / def 0.856 | Sturm Graz attack 0.947 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.681 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Sturm Graz xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Vienna 0 - 3 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 35% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (0.95x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
35%
2.90
32%
3.10
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.75
1.36
Sturm Graz xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.36 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 16D 10L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sturm Graz sit at 1.80 PPG from 41 outings (21W 11D 9L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.80 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Austria Vienna's home form reads 8W 9D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Sturm Graz have taken 1.65 points per game from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.85 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 15W 16D 10L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 21W 11D 9L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.65 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
2
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Sturm Graz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Austria Vienna, 70% for Sturm Graz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Austria Vienna) and 60% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Austria Vienna's games and 70% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Austria Vienna's matches and 60% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Vienna 0-3 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.39 xG and Sturm Graz 1.36 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.22 / defence 0.86 against Sturm Graz attack 0.95 / defence 0.82, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 35% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 33%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 51%, Sturm Graz 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.49 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.