Austria Vienna 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sturm Graz (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 66% and Sturm Graz 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 59% | Sturm Graz 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.18 xG and Sturm Graz 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.195 / defence 0.835 | Sturm Graz attack 1.086 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.337. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 35% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 37%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Sturm Graz 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 50% | Sturm Graz 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 35% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Austria Vienna 1.18 / Sturm Graz 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.195 / def 0.835 | Sturm Graz attack 1.086 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sturm Graz xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Vienna 1 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 35% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.09x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.61
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Sturm Graz xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.21 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna come into this having played 59 games, going 21W 21D 17L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sturm Graz sit at 1.92 PPG from 59 outings (33W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Austria Vienna's home form reads 12W 10D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Sturm Graz have taken 1.76 points per game from 29 outings (14W 9D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.83 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 21W 21D 17L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 33W 14D 12L in their last 59 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.59 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
2
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Sturm Graz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Austria Vienna, 62% for Sturm Graz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Austria Vienna) and 52% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Austria Vienna's games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Austria Vienna's matches and 52% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Austria Vienna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Vienna 1-2 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.18 xG and Sturm Graz 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.20 / defence 0.83 against Sturm Graz attack 1.09 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 35% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 37%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 59%, Sturm Graz 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.