Austria Vienna 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Vienna have posted 1W 5D 0L at Generali Arena — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record: 5W 2D 0L from 7 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.43 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Red Bull Salzburg arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 69% and Red Bull Salzburg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 38% | Red Bull Salzburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.15 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.976 / defence 1.080 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.979 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.437. Data: 13 Austria Vienna games / 13 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 26% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 43%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 83% | Red Bull Salzburg 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 26% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Austria Vienna 1.15 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.976 / def 1.080 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.979 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Red Bull Salzburg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Vienna 0 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 26% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (0.98x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
26%
3.78
30%
3.31
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.67
1.52
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.52 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 3W 7D 3L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 11W 2D 0L from 13 games, 2.69 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Vienna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (1W 5D 0L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.54 scored and 0.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Red Bull Salzburg in 62%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 3W 7D 3L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 11W 2D 0L in their last 13 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.33 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Red Bull Salzburg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
8
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Austria Vienna, 50% for Red Bull Salzburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Austria Vienna and 33% for Red Bull Salzburg.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Austria Vienna's games and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 33% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out Austria Vienna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 0-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.15 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 26% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 43%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 38%, Red Bull Salzburg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.