Austria Vienna 3-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Austria Vienna at Generali Arena this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.10 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 67% and Rapid Vienna 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 60% | Rapid Vienna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.58 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.188 / defence 0.841 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.937 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.338. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 50% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 25%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Rapid Vienna 4.00. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 60% | Rapid Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 50% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Austria Vienna 1.58 / Rapid Vienna 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.188 / def 0.841 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.937 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Rapid Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Austria Vienna 3 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 50% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.19) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.94x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
50%
2.01
25%
3.99
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.64
1.05
Rapid Vienna xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
19.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.05 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 21W 21D 18L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 22L across 60 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.40 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 12W 10D 8L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 9W 8D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.58 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 21W 21D 18L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.53 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Austria Vienna, 73% for Rapid Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Austria Vienna and 60% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Austria Vienna's games and 73% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Austria Vienna's matches and 60% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Rapid Vienna 3-1 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.58 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.05 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.19 / defence 0.84 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 50% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 25%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 60%, Rapid Vienna 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.40 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.