Austria Vienna 2-2 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 0W 4D 0L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Admira Wacker have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Admira Wacker in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Admira Wacker goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 60% and Admira Wacker 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Austria Vienna 30% | Admira Wacker 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.24 xG and Admira Wacker 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.687 / defence 0.993 | Admira Wacker attack 0.732 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.406. Austria Vienna's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Admira Wacker bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Austria Vienna games / 10 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 37% | Draw 36% | Admira Wacker 27%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Admira Wacker 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Austria Vienna 75% | Admira Wacker 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 37% | Draw 36% | Admira Wacker 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Austria Vienna 1.24 / Admira Wacker 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.687 / def 0.993 | Admira Wacker attack 0.732 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Admira Wacker xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Austria Vienna 2 - 2 Admira Wacker.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker part of?
Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 37% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Admira Wacker (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Admira Wacker's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Admira Wacker's attack (0.73x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
37%
2.70
36%
2.75
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.26
1.02
Admira Wacker xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
12.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.02 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 2W 5D 3L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Admira Wacker's form line: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.20 for Admira Wacker. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 4D 0L).
On the road, Admira Wacker have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Admira Wacker's season.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Admira Wacker in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Admira Wacker
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Admira Wacker away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.00 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
0
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker?
From 2 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 1, Admira Wacker have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Admira Wacker 1-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Austria Vienna, 75% for Admira Wacker — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Austria Vienna) and 100% (Admira Wacker).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Austria Vienna's games and 75% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 100% of Admira Wacker's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Admira Wacker finished level at 2-2 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.24 xG and Admira Wacker 1.02 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Admira Wacker outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.69 / defence 0.99 against Admira Wacker attack 0.73 / defence 1.38, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 37% | Draw 36% | Admira Wacker 27%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 30%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.10 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.