Austria Lustenau 1-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Planet Pure Stadion plays host to Austria Lustenau versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 3W 3D 3L across 9 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 games at Planet Pure Stadion this term (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.33 PPG for Austria Lustenau against 1.40 for Wolfsberger AC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Lustenau register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Wolfsberger AC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Austria Lustenau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 67% and Wolfsberger AC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Lustenau 56% | Wolfsberger AC 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.49 xG and Wolfsberger AC 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 1.021 / defence 1.262 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.233 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.529. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 2.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Austria Lustenau games / 31 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 22% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 56%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Wolfsberger AC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 2.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 75% | Wolfsberger AC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 22% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.49 / Wolfsberger AC 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 1.021 / def 1.262 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.233 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.529 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.38
Wolfsberger AC xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Lustenau 1 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 22% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.78 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 1.02x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.23x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.38.
These ratings are built from 9/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
22%
4.64
23%
4.41
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.87
2.38
Wolfsberger AC xG
4.64
22%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.56
Clean Sheet
9%
10.80
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
2%
50.12
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.38 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Austria Lustenau have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 3W 3D 3L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Austria Lustenau against 1.22 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Lustenau have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Austria Lustenau are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.22 PPG overall record — Wolfsberger AC travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 2.00 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 100%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.75 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Austria Lustenau
3
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC?
From 9 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 2, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Austria Lustenau 1-2 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Austria Lustenau, 100% for Wolfsberger AC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Austria Lustenau and 100% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Austria Lustenau's games and 100% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 100% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Lustenau 1-3 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.49 xG and Wolfsberger AC 2.38 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.23 / defence 1.03, drawn from 9/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 22% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 56%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 56%, Wolfsberger AC 89%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.33 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.