Austria Lustenau 2-2 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Lustenau at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 6 as Austria Lustenau welcome Ried to Planet Pure Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Planet Pure Stadion, Austria Lustenau have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Austria Lustenau are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Austria Lustenau, 1 for Ried and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Austria Lustenau in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ried in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 52% versus Ried 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 52% | Ried 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.47 xG and Ried 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 1.032 / defence 1.123 | Ried attack 0.862 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.337. Data: 22 Austria Lustenau games / 44 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 41% | Draw 25% | Ried 33%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Ried 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Austria Lustenau 50% | Ried 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 41% | Draw 25% | Ried 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.47 / Ried 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 1.032 / def 1.123 | Ried attack 0.862 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ried xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Ried kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Austria Lustenau 2 - 2 Ried.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Ried part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Ried is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 41% chance of winning, Ried a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Ried?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 2 | Ried 1W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Ried in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Ried (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 1.03x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
41%
2.42
25%
3.94
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.76
1.29
Ried xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.29 for Ried, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 7D 10L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ried sit at 0.78 PPG from 27 outings (4W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Ried — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 6W 3D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Ried have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Lustenau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 0.85 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Ried in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 games (1.37 PPG), while Ried have gone 4W 9D 14L in their last 27 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Ried away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.62 PPG; Ried away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Lustenau and Ried runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting Ried specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
4
Draws
1
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Ried?
From 5 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Ried have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Austria Lustenau 1-1 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ried see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 54%, Ried 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Austria Lustenau) and 31% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ried in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Ried?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 38% of Ried's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Austria Lustenau's recent games and 31% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Lustenau and Ried tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ried in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Lustenau and Ried share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Planet Pure Stadion, Relegation Round - 6, as Austria Lustenau and Ried drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.47 xG and Ried 1.29 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Ried attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 41% | Draw 25% | Ried 33%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 52%, Ried 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Lustenau arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ried (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.