Austria Klagenfurt 4-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt host TSV Hartberg at Wörthersee Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Austria Klagenfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. TSV Hartberg are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.09 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.915 / defence 1.095 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.909 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.511. Data: 2 Austria Klagenfurt games / 2 TSV Hartberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 24% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 43%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | TSV Hartberg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 24% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.09 / TSV Hartberg 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.915 / def 1.095 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.909 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.50
TSV Hartberg xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt 4 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 24% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Klagenfurt's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
24%
4.20
33%
3.02
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.59
1.50
TSV Hartberg xG
4.20
24%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
5%
18.88
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.50 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Klagenfurt come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: TSV Hartberg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Austria Klagenfurt or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Klagenfurt have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Klagenfurt
4
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat TSV Hartberg 4-3 at Wörthersee Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.09 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.50 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 24% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 43%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Austria Klagenfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 50%, TSV Hartberg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Austria Klagenfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Austria Klagenfurt scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.