Austria Klagenfurt 3-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt host SCR Altach at 28 Black Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 1D 7L at 28 Black Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 28 Black Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Austria Klagenfurt) versus 1.10 (SCR Altach). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Austria Klagenfurt hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for SCR Altach, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 4–1 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Austria Klagenfurt and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 69% versus SCR Altach 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 65% | SCR Altach 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.50 xG and SCR Altach 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.835 / defence 1.230 | SCR Altach attack 0.825 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.351. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Austria Klagenfurt games / 41 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 40% | Draw 25% | SCR Altach 35%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | SCR Altach 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Klagenfurt are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Austria Klagenfurt 50% | SCR Altach 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 40% | Draw 25% | SCR Altach 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.50 / SCR Altach 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.835 / def 1.230 | SCR Altach attack 0.825 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.37
SCR Altach xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Austria Klagenfurt 3 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 40% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 3W | Draws 0 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 0.83x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
40%
2.48
25%
4.02
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.87
1.37
SCR Altach xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.37 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 15W 15D 21L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach's form line: 11W 12D 28L from 51 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 1.18 PPG, SCR Altach on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (6W 7D 12L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 7W 3D 15L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.86 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 15W 15D 21L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 12D 28L in their last 51 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or SCR Altach away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.00 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Klagenfurt
4
Draws
1
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 5, SCR Altach have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when SCR Altach 0-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 64%, SCR Altach 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Austria Klagenfurt and 72% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 28% of games; SCR Altach in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 40% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 72% of SCR Altach's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Klagenfurt run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat SCR Altach 3-0 at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.50 xG and SCR Altach 1.37 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.83 / defence 1.23 against SCR Altach attack 0.82 / defence 1.35, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 40% | Draw 25% | SCR Altach 35%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 65%, SCR Altach 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.18 PPG, SCR Altach 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.