Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
28 Black Arena plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Klagenfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 28 Black Arena, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 28 Black Arena this season.
Austria Lustenau have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Austria Lustenau in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 60% and Austria Lustenau 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 60% | Austria Lustenau 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.43 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.934 / defence 0.974 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.734 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.716. Data: 32 Austria Klagenfurt games / 10 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 38% | Draw 33% | Austria Lustenau 29%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Austria Lustenau 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Klagenfurt are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 60% | Austria Lustenau 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 38% | Draw 33% | Austria Lustenau 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.43 / Austria Lustenau 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.934 / def 0.974 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.734 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.716 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Austria Lustenau xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Austria Klagenfurt 2 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 38% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 0.93x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.73x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 32/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
38%
2.60
33%
3.05
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.66
1.23
Austria Lustenau xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
7%
14.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.23 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.20 for Austria Lustenau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.30 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Austria Lustenau in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Lustenau's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Austria Klagenfurt go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Austria Klagenfurt
0
Draws
1
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Austria Lustenau 0-1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Klagenfurt tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 25%, Austria Lustenau 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 50% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 75% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 50% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Klagenfurt edge out Austria Lustenau 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Austria Lustenau 2-1 at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.43 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.23 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.73 / defence 1.12, drawn from 32/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 38% | Draw 33% | Austria Lustenau 29%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 60%, Austria Lustenau 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.40 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.