Admira Wacker 0-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 35%, yet in-form Wolfsberger AC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wolfsberger AC make the trip to BSFZ-Arena to face Admira Wacker in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Admira Wacker's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Admira Wacker have posted 2W 2D 3L at BSFZ-Arena — 1.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Wolfsberger AC are 0.80 PPG clear of Admira Wacker in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Admira Wacker 0W, Wolfsberger AC 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Admira Wacker — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 60% and Wolfsberger AC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 53% | Wolfsberger AC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.791 / defence 1.038 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.958 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.343. Admira Wacker's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Admira Wacker games / 15 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 35% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 35%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Wolfsberger AC 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Admira Wacker 43% | Wolfsberger AC 57%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 35% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Admira Wacker 1.34 / Wolfsberger AC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.791 / def 1.038 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.958 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Wolfsberger AC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC?
Admira Wacker 0 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 35% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Admira Wacker and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (1 meetings): Admira Wacker 0W | Draws 0 | Wolfsberger AC 1W.
What form are Admira Wacker and Wolfsberger AC in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Admira Wacker's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.96x) against Admira Wacker's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
35%
2.82
29%
3.43
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.67
1.34
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.34 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Admira Wacker come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 6D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Admira Wacker — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Admira Wacker's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.67 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 1.14 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Admira Wacker
0
Draws
2
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Wolfsberger AC?
From 2 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 0, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when Admira Wacker 0-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Admira Wacker see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 43%, Wolfsberger AC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Admira Wacker) and 71% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Admira Wacker's recent matches and 57% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 71% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Admira Wacker 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Admira Wacker 0-1 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Admira Wacker fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.79 / defence 1.04 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.96 / defence 1.36, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 35% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 35%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 53%, Wolfsberger AC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.