Admira Wacker 2-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees SCR Altach travel to BSFZ-Arena to take on Admira Wacker. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Admira Wacker — All Games: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Admira Wacker have posted 1W 2D 1L at BSFZ-Arena — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 2W 3D 4L from 9 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Admira Wacker at 1.00 PPG versus SCR Altach's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Admira Wacker in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 67% and SCR Altach 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 56% | SCR Altach 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.18 xG and SCR Altach 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.989 / defence 0.861 | SCR Altach attack 0.626 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.461. Data: 9 Admira Wacker games / 9 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 41% | Draw 38% | SCR Altach 21%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 2.44 | Draw 2.63 | SCR Altach 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Admira Wacker at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Admira Wacker 50% | SCR Altach 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 41% | Draw 38% | SCR Altach 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Admira Wacker 1.18 / SCR Altach 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.989 / def 0.861 | SCR Altach attack 0.626 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
0.79
SCR Altach xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach kick off?
Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach?
Admira Wacker 2 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach part of?
Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 41% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 21% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Admira Wacker and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Admira Wacker and SCR Altach in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Admira Wacker's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Admira Wacker's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
41%
2.43
38%
2.62
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
1.97
0.79
SCR Altach xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
15.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 0.79 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Admira Wacker come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Admira Wacker on 1.00 PPG, SCR Altach on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Admira Wacker's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.78 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or SCR Altach away?
Admira Wacker's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 1.25 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when SCR Altach won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Admira Wacker's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Admira Wacker
1
Draws
1
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and SCR Altach?
From 4 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 2, SCR Altach have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when Admira Wacker 0-3 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and SCR Altach?
Admira Wacker have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Admira Wacker see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 50%, SCR Altach 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Admira Wacker) and 50% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 50%; SCR Altach in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Admira Wacker's recent matches and 50% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 50% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Admira Wacker cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Admira Wacker beat SCR Altach 2-0 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.18 xG and SCR Altach 0.79 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Admira Wacker beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against SCR Altach attack 0.63 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 41% | Draw 38% | SCR Altach 21%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 56%, SCR Altach 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 1.00 PPG, SCR Altach 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Admira Wacker win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.