Admira Wacker 2-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ried at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Admira Wacker vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Ried travel to BSFZ-Arena to take on Admira Wacker. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Admira Wacker stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker at BSFZ-Arena this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ried — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ried are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Admira Wacker, 2 for Ried and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Ried winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Admira Wacker trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Ried trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 59% and Ried 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 50% | Ried 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.13 xG and Ried 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.713 / defence 1.366 | Ried attack 0.760 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.235. Admira Wacker's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Admira Wacker games / 22 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 33% | Draw 27% | Ried 40%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Ried 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ried at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ried offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Admira Wacker 50% | Ried 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 33% | Draw 27% | Ried 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Admira Wacker 1.13 / Ried 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.713 / def 1.366 | Ried attack 0.760 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Ried (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Ried xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs Ried kick off?
Admira Wacker vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Admira Wacker 2 - 0 Ried.
Where is Admira Wacker vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs Ried part of?
Admira Wacker vs Ried is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 33% chance of winning, Ried a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Admira Wacker and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Ried?
Record (2 meetings): Admira Wacker 0W | Draws 0 | Ried 2W.
What form are Admira Wacker and Ried in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Ried (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Admira Wacker's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Admira Wacker's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
33%
3.07
27%
3.64
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.41
1.28
Ried xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.28 for Ried, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Admira Wacker's recent record stands at 4W 8D 10L from 22 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 7L across 22 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ried by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Admira Wacker heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Admira Wacker have managed 2W 2D 7L from 11 games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
The Goals Picture
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.41 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried in 77%.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and Ried in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Ried have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or Ried away?
Admira Wacker's home record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 0.73 PPG; Ried away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Admira Wacker and Ried runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Admira Wacker's record when hosting Ried specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Admira Wacker
1
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Ried?
From 4 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 1, Ried have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2022, when Ried 1-1 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 46%, Ried 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Admira Wacker) and 54% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker have failed to score in 36% of games; Ried in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Admira Wacker's games and 73% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Admira Wacker vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 54% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and Ried tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ried in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Admira Wacker cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Admira Wacker beat Ried 2-0 at BSFZ-Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.13 xG and Ried 1.28 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Admira Wacker beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ried landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.71 / defence 1.37 against Ried attack 0.76 / defence 1.37, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 33% | Draw 27% | Ried 40%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Admira Wacker win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 50%, Ried 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Ried's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Admira Wacker winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.