Admira Wacker 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 45%, yet in-form Red Bull Salzburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg make the trip to BSFZ-Arena to face Admira Wacker in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Admira Wacker (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Admira Wacker have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg have collected 3.00 PPG across 3 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.67 PPG clear of Admira Wacker in recent Bundesliga fixtures (3.00 vs 1.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Admira Wacker have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Red Bull Salzburg in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Admira Wacker goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 67% and Red Bull Salzburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Admira Wacker 67% | Red Bull Salzburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.83 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 1.242 / defence 0.988 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.044 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.366. Data: 3 Admira Wacker games / 3 Red Bull Salzburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 45% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 27%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.70. Admira Wacker hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Admira Wacker are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Red Bull Salzburg (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Admira Wacker 67% | Red Bull Salzburg 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 45% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Admira Wacker 1.83 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 1.242 / def 0.988 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.044 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Red Bull Salzburg xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Admira Wacker 0 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 45% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Admira Wacker and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Admira Wacker and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Admira Wacker's attack rating (1.24) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.04x) against Admira Wacker's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.48
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
3.24
1.41
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
4%
23.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.41 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Admira Wacker's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Admira Wacker, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Admira Wacker heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Admira Wacker are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 3.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Admira Wacker's scoring rate against Red Bull Salzburg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Red Bull Salzburg in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Admira Wacker or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Admira Wacker have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Admira Wacker
1
Draws
1
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 2 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Admira Wacker see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Admira Wacker, 67% for Red Bull Salzburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Admira Wacker and 67% for Red Bull Salzburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Admira Wacker's games and 67% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Admira Wacker vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Admira Wacker's matches and 67% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Admira Wacker and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Red Bull Salzburg defy the odds to beat Admira Wacker 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Admira Wacker 0-1 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.83 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.41 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Admira Wacker fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 1.24 / defence 0.99 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 45% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 27%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 67%, Red Bull Salzburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Admira Wacker managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Red Bull Salzburg managed 1 against a 3.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.