Admira Wacker 1-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Admira Wacker and Rapid Vienna meet at BSFZ-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Admira Wacker's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker at BSFZ-Arena this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game.
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 3L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Rapid Vienna are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Admira Wacker, 0 for Rapid Vienna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Admira Wacker winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Admira Wacker — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 59% and Rapid Vienna 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 47% | Rapid Vienna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.690 / defence 1.044 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.800 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.271. Admira Wacker's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rapid Vienna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Admira Wacker games / 17 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 36% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 34%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Rapid Vienna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Admira Wacker as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rapid Vienna (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Admira Wacker 38% | Rapid Vienna 88% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 36% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Admira Wacker 1.12 / Rapid Vienna 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.690 / def 1.044 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.800 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Rapid Vienna xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna?
Admira Wacker 1 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 36% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Admira Wacker and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Rapid Vienna?
Record (1 meetings): Admira Wacker 1W | Draws 0 | Rapid Vienna 0W.
What form are Admira Wacker and Rapid Vienna in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Admira Wacker's attack at 0.69x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.80x) against Admira Wacker's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.31
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.18
1.06
Rapid Vienna xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.06 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Admira Wacker come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 7D 7L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Admira Wacker against 1.24 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Admira Wacker's home form reads 2W 2D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (0W 5D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rapid Vienna's season.
Attack vs Defence
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Admira Wacker's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 1.00 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Admira Wacker
0
Draws
1
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Rapid Vienna?
From 2 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 1, Rapid Vienna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2021, when Admira Wacker 1-2 Rapid Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Admira Wacker see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 38%, Rapid Vienna 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Admira Wacker and 38% for Rapid Vienna.
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Admira Wacker's games and 88% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 38% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat Admira Wacker 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Admira Wacker 1-2 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.06 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.69 / defence 1.04 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.80 / defence 1.31, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 36% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 34%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rapid Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 47%, Rapid Vienna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 0.94 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.