Admira Wacker 1-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 4 as Admira Wacker welcome Lask Linz to BSFZ-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Admira Wacker stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker's home record at BSFZ-Arena: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Lask Linz have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lask Linz's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Admira Wacker's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Admira Wacker, 2 for Lask Linz and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Lask Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Admira Wacker trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lask Linz trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Admira Wacker 56% versus Lask Linz 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 48% | Lask Linz 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.01 xG and Lask Linz 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.746 / defence 1.335 | Lask Linz attack 0.975 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. Admira Wacker's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Admira Wacker games / 22 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 24% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 51%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Lask Linz 1.96. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Admira Wacker 50% | Lask Linz 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 24% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Admira Wacker 1.01 / Lask Linz 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.746 / def 1.335 | Lask Linz attack 0.975 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Lask Linz xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz kick off?
Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Admira Wacker 1 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz part of?
Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 24% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Admira Wacker and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Lask Linz?
Record (2 meetings): Admira Wacker 0W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 2W.
What form are Admira Wacker and Lask Linz in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Admira Wacker's attack rating (0.75) and Lask Linz's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Admira Wacker's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
24%
4.23
25%
4.02
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.62
1.61
Lask Linz xG
4.23
24%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
5%
21.18
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.61 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Admira Wacker's recent record stands at 5W 10D 10L from 25 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 10L across 25 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Admira Wacker on 1.00 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Admira Wacker have managed 3W 2D 7L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.36 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 5W 10D 10L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 0.92 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Lask Linz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Admira Wacker's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Admira Wacker
1
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Lask Linz?
From 4 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 0, Lask Linz have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Lask Linz 3-1 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 42%, Lask Linz 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Admira Wacker) and 50% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Admira Wacker's recent matches and 58% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 50% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Admira Wacker and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BSFZ-Arena, Relegation Round - 4, as Admira Wacker and Lask Linz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.01 xG and Lask Linz 1.61 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.75 / defence 1.33 against Lask Linz attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 24% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 51%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 48%, Lask Linz 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 1.00 PPG, Lask Linz 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.