Admira Wacker 0-3 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Admira Wacker welcome Lask Linz to BSFZ-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Admira Wacker stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker's home record at BSFZ-Arena: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Bundesliga appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Lask Linz have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Admira Wacker) versus 1.10 (Lask Linz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Admira Wacker, 1 for Lask Linz and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Lask Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Admira Wacker trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Lask Linz trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 63% and Lask Linz 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 47% | Lask Linz 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.25 xG and Lask Linz 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.772 / defence 1.106 | Lask Linz attack 0.959 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.388. Admira Wacker's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lask Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Admira Wacker games / 19 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 31% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 41%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Lask Linz 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Admira Wacker 44% | Lask Linz 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 31% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Admira Wacker 1.25 / Lask Linz 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.772 / def 1.106 | Lask Linz attack 0.959 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Lask Linz xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz kick off?
Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Admira Wacker 0 - 3 Lask Linz.
Where is Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz part of?
Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 31% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Admira Wacker and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Lask Linz?
Record (1 meetings): Admira Wacker 0W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 1W.
What form are Admira Wacker and Lask Linz in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Admira Wacker's attack rating (0.77) and Lask Linz's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Admira Wacker's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.69
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.73
1.47
Lask Linz xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.47 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Admira Wacker's recent record stands at 3W 8D 8L from 19 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 8L across 19 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Admira Wacker on 0.89 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Admira Wacker have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.32 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Lask Linz in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 3W 8D 8L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 0.89 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Lask Linz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Admira Wacker's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Admira Wacker
1
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Lask Linz?
From 4 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 0, Lask Linz have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Lask Linz 3-1 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Admira Wacker see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 44%, Lask Linz 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Admira Wacker) and 56% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Admira Wacker's games and 78% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 56% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Admira Wacker.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Admira Wacker 0-3 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.25 xG and Lask Linz 1.47 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Admira Wacker fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lask Linz outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Lask Linz attack 0.96 / defence 1.36, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 31% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 41%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 47%, Lask Linz 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lask Linz's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 0.89 PPG, Lask Linz 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.