Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan meet at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Sharjah FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Khorfakkan have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sharjah FC. A 1.80 PPG lead over Khorfakkan (2.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sharjah FC, 0 for Khorfakkan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 36% versus Khorfakkan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 54% | Khorfakkan 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.72 xG and Khorfakkan 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.216 / defence 0.892 | Khorfakkan attack 0.807 / defence 1.725. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.239. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.725 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Sharjah FC games / 22 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 76% | Draw 14% | Khorfakkan 10%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.32 | Draw 7.14 | Khorfakkan 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (76%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 30% | Khorfakkan 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 76% | Draw 14% | Khorfakkan 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 55% | xG Sharjah FC 2.72 / Khorfakkan 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.216 / def 0.892 | Khorfakkan attack 0.807 / def 1.725 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Khorfakkan xG
55%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Sharjah FC 3 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 76% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 10% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (1 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.22) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 2.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.81x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
76%
1.32
14%
6.91
10%
10.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.61
0.89
Khorfakkan xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.91
14%
Draw
10.28
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
7%
15.17
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
1%
155.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.89 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 14W 3D 5L from 22 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 12L across 22 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 9W 0D 2L from 11 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.05 PPG overall — Sharjah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.41 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 14W 3D 5L in their last 22 games (2.05 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 27%, Khorfakkan 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Sharjah FC and 82% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 73% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sharjah FC's matches and 82% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Khorfakkan 3-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.72 xG and Khorfakkan 0.89 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.89 against Khorfakkan attack 0.81 / defence 1.73, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 76% | Draw 14% | Khorfakkan 10%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 54%, Khorfakkan 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.