Sharjah FC 1-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Jazira travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Jazira — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 1.10 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sharjah FC, 2 for Al-Jazira and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 50% and Al-Jazira 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 48% | Al-Jazira 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.18 xG and Al-Jazira 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.154 / defence 0.969 | Al-Jazira attack 1.110 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.773. Al-Jazira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Sharjah FC games / 44 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 20% | Al-Jazira 35%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.22 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Jazira 2.86. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.08 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 80% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 20% | Al-Jazira 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Sharjah FC 2.18 / Al-Jazira 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.154 / def 0.969 | Al-Jazira attack 1.110 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.773 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Al-Jazira xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Sharjah FC 1 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 35% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (5 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Jazira 2W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
45%
2.22
20%
4.92
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
4.08
1.91
Al-Jazira xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.32
25%
BTTS No
4.08
Clean Sheet
15%
6.74
11%
8.81
Win to Nil
7%
14.99
4%
25.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.91 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 19W 15D 10L from 44 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 16L across 44 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.64 PPG, Al-Jazira on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Jazira's away record stands at 10W 3D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 2.00 scored and 1.73 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira in 77%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 19W 15D 10L in their last 44 games (1.64 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 20W 8D 16L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Jazira have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 5-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sharjah FC at 54%, Al-Jazira at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Sharjah FC and 77% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sharjah FC's games and 82% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sharjah FC's matches and 77% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.18 xG and Al-Jazira 1.91 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.97 against Al-Jazira attack 1.11 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 20% | Al-Jazira 35%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 48%, Al-Jazira 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.64 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.