Sharjah FC 3-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba meet at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Sharjah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Ittihad Kalba arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Sharjah FC are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The historical record gives Sharjah FC a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 42% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 50% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.03 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.784 / defence 1.179 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.903 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.352. Sharjah FC's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Sharjah FC games / 38 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 46%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.17. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Sharjah FC dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Ittihad Kalba are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 30% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Sharjah FC 1.03 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.784 / def 1.179 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.903 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Sharjah FC 3 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 27% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (8 meetings): Sharjah FC 6W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 0.78x the league average against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.90x) against Sharjah FC's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
27%
3.70
27%
3.77
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.47
1.44
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
6%
15.62
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.44 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sharjah FC come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 5D 14L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (12W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Sharjah FC against 1.26 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sharjah FC's home form reads 10W 1D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.34 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 19W 5D 14L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.72 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 0-4 on 20 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 22%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sharjah FC) and 61% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 61% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 61% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.03 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.44 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 46%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 50%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.63 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.