Sharjah FC 1-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sharjah FC face Al-Dhafra.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sharjah FC host Al-Dhafra at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Sharjah Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Sharjah FC have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sharjah FC: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Dhafra, with 0 draws across those contests.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
The historical record gives Sharjah FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 36% versus Al-Dhafra 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 53% | Al-Dhafra 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.23 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.145 / defence 0.786 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.773 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.438. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Sharjah FC games / 47 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 68% | Draw 18% | Al-Dhafra 13%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Dhafra 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sharjah FC 30% | Al-Dhafra 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 68% | Draw 18% | Al-Dhafra 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 52% | xG Sharjah FC 2.23 / Al-Dhafra 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.145 / def 0.786 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.773 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Al-Dhafra xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Sharjah FC 1 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 68% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra?
Record (3 meetings): Sharjah FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.41
13%
7.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.11
0.87
Al-Dhafra xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
7.53
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
11%
9.34
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
1%
70.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.87 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 28W 10D 9L from 47 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 31L across 47 games — 0.64 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 1.36 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Dhafra heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 15W 3D 5L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 2W 4D 17L across 23 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.96 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 28W 10D 9L in their last 47 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 7W 9D 31L in their last 47 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.09 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Dhafra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Dhafra in 4%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sharjah FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Sharjah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 6, Al-Dhafra have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 35%, Al-Dhafra 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Sharjah FC) and 48% (Al-Dhafra). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Al-Dhafra in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 44% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sharjah FC's matches and 48% of Al-Dhafra's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al-Dhafra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Dhafra 1-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.23 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.87 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Dhafra landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.79 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.77 / defence 1.29, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 68% | Draw 18% | Al-Dhafra 13%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 53%, Al-Dhafra 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.