Sharjah FC 0-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sharjah FC face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sharjah Stadium plays host to Sharjah FC versus Al Bataeh in Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Sharjah FC's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Sharjah FC have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Bataeh (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Bataeh's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Sharjah FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al Bataeh's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Sharjah FC, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Al Bataeh — Al Bataeh have 0 wins, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2024, ended Sharjah FC 2–0 Al Bataeh — a Sharjah FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sharjah FC and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 63% and Al Bataeh 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 56% | Al Bataeh 71%). Note also that Al Bataeh surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Sharjah FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.48 xG and Al Bataeh 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.958 / defence 0.604 | Al Bataeh attack 0.973 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.418. Sharjah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.604), which is pulling Al Bataeh's projected output down. Data: built from Sharjah FC's last 41 games and Al Bataeh's last 42.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 21%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.90 | Draw 3.79 | Al Bataeh 4.73. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sharjah FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sharjah FC 1.48 / Al Bataeh 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.958 / def 0.604 | Al Bataeh attack 0.973 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al Bataeh xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh FAQs
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Sharjah FC 0 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 53% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.97x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Sharjah FC's last 41 games and Al Bataeh's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.79
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.32
0.83
Al Bataeh xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
5%
20.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.83 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 22W 13D 6L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Al Bataeh's form line: 12W 10D 19L from 41 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Bataeh.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 20 home games (11W 7D 2L).
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 7W 4D 9L from their last 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.46 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 71%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
Sharjah FC (Home) vs Al Bataeh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh Form FAQs
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 22W 13D 6L in their last 41 games (1.93 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won Sharjah FC 3-0 Al Bataeh on 18 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Al Bataeh 0-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 55%, Al Bataeh 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Sharjah FC and 70% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sharjah FC's games and 65% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sharjah FC's matches and 70% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 80% of Al Bataeh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Sharjah FC 0-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.48 xG and Al Bataeh 0.83 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.60 against Al Bataeh attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 21%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Al Bataeh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 56%, Al Bataeh 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Al Bataeh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.