Sharjah FC 0-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sharjah FC host Ajman at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC at Sharjah Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sharjah FC at 1.40 PPG versus Ajman's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sharjah FC's 20% rate and Ajman's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Sharjah FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Ajman, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2025, ended 4–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Ajman trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 41% versus Ajman 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 55% | Ajman 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.29 xG and Ajman 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.937 / defence 0.917 | Ajman attack 0.816 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.226. Data: 29 Sharjah FC games / 29 Ajman games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 28% | Ajman 27%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Ajman 3.70. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 20% | Ajman 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 28% | Ajman 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Sharjah FC 1.29 / Ajman 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.937 / def 0.917 | Ajman attack 0.816 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Ajman xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Ajman kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Sharjah FC 0 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Ajman part of?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 45% chance of winning, Ajman a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sharjah FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Record (8 meetings): Sharjah FC 5W | Draws 2 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Ajman (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.51
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.21
0.92
Ajman xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
7%
13.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.92 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC come into this having played 29 games, going 17W 4D 8L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (10W 4D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Ajman — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sharjah FC's home form reads 9W 1D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (3W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.41 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 17W 4D 8L in their last 29 games (1.90 PPG), while Ajman have gone 10W 4D 15L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Ajman away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Ajman away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Ajman in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Ajman runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 5, Ajman have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sharjah FC 21% BTTS, Ajman 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sharjah FC) and 43% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Ajman in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 36% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 43% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ajman in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajman defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Sharjah FC 0-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.29 xG and Ajman 0.92 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Ajman attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 28% | Ajman 27%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 55%, Ajman 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajman's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.