Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Ajman.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai host Ajman at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Rashid Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajman in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Ajman have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The historical record gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games).
Ajman in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 66% and Ajman 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% | Ajman 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.95 xG and Ajman 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.289 / defence 0.995 | Ajman attack 1.103 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.655. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 38 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 41% | Draw 23% | Ajman 36%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Ajman 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% | Ajman 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 41% | Draw 23% | Ajman 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.95 / Ajman 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.289 / def 0.995 | Ajman attack 1.103 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.655 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Ajman xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 41% chance of winning, Ajman a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman?
Record (5 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4W | Draws 1 | Ajman 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Ajman (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack at 1.29x the league average against Ajman's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
41%
2.44
23%
4.26
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.77
1.81
Ajman xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
16%
6.14
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
5%
19.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.81 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 38 games, going 24W 9D 5L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (15W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Ajman — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home form reads 12W 3D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.55 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Ajman in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 24W 9D 5L in their last 38 games (2.13 PPG), while Ajman have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Ajman away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.05 PPG; Ajman away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
0
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 9, Ajman have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Ajman 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%, Ajman 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 53% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 63% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 53% of Ajman's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Ajman in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Ajman 3-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.95 xG and Ajman 1.81 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.29 / defence 0.99 against Ajman attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 41% | Draw 23% | Ajman 36%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71%, Ajman 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajman's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.