Khorfakkan 0-0 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Al Nasr travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 13:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 2W 4D 4L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 0.80 PPG, Al Nasr 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al Nasr 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Al Nasr in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 63% and Al Nasr 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 63% | Al Nasr 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.52 xG and Al Nasr 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.044 / defence 1.223 | Al Nasr attack 1.099 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.394. Data: 38 Khorfakkan games / 38 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 31% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 46%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Al Nasr 2.17. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 80% | Al Nasr 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 31% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Khorfakkan 1.52 / Al Nasr 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.044 / def 1.223 | Al Nasr attack 1.099 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Al Nasr xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr kicked off at 13:05 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Khorfakkan 0 - 0 Al Nasr.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 31% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
Record (8 meetings): Khorfakkan 2W | Draws 2 | Al Nasr 4W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
31%
3.18
22%
4.48
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.39
1.87
Al Nasr xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
5%
20.74
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.87 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 12W 8D 18L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 14L across 38 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.16 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 5W 7D 7L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Nasr's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.63 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al Nasr in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.16 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al Nasr have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Khorfakkan at 68%, Al Nasr at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Khorfakkan and 74% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Khorfakkan's games and 68% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Khorfakkan's matches and 74% of Al Nasr's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khorfakkan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Khorfakkan and Al Nasr drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.52 xG and Al Nasr 1.87 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khorfakkan fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al Nasr landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against Al Nasr attack 1.10 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 31% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 46%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 63%, Al Nasr 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Nasr's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.16 PPG, Al Nasr 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.