Khorfakkan 2-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 50%, yet in-form Al-Jazira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Al-Jazira at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Jazira stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Jazira — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 0, Al-Jazira 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 0–4 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 61% versus Al-Jazira 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 70% | Al-Jazira 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.67 xG and Al-Jazira 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.028 / defence 1.107 | Al-Jazira attack 0.793 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.271. Al-Jazira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Khorfakkan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Khorfakkan games / 23 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 25%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Jazira 4.00. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Jazira (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 40% | Al-Jazira 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Khorfakkan 1.67 / Al-Jazira 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.028 / def 1.107 | Al-Jazira attack 0.793 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Jazira xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Khorfakkan 2 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 50% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira?
Record (1 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.13
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.79
1.11
Al-Jazira xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
5%
21.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.11 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 4D 13L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Jazira sit at 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (14W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khorfakkan's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Jazira have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.70 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Jazira in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 14W 3D 6L in their last 23 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Jazira away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.55 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2021, when Al-Jazira won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 4, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Al-Jazira 3-1 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 46%, Al-Jazira 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Khorfakkan) and 54% (Al-Jazira).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Jazira in 36%; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Jazira in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Jazira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 46% of Al-Jazira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 54% of Al-Jazira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Jazira 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Jazira 2-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.67 xG and Al-Jazira 1.11 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Al-Jazira attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 25%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 70%, Al-Jazira 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.