Hatta SC 0-5 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al-Wasl FC travel to Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium to take on Hatta SC. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 October 2023, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatta SC stand at 0W 0D 5L from 5 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Hatta SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Wasl FC's 1.80 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Hatta SC's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Hatta SC trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Al-Wasl FC trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatta SC 40% and Al-Wasl FC 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatta SC 60% | Al-Wasl FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatta SC 1.04 xG and Al-Wasl FC 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatta SC attack 0.601 / defence 1.238 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.187 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.727. Hatta SC's attack strength of 0.601 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Hatta SC games / 31 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatta SC 13% | Draw 17% | Al-Wasl FC 70%. Fair-value odds: Hatta SC 7.69 | Draw 5.88 | Al-Wasl FC 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.04 / 2.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatta SC 40% | Al-Wasl FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatta SC 13% | Draw 17% | Al-Wasl FC 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 60% | xG Hatta SC 1.04 / Al-Wasl FC 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: Hatta SC attack 0.601 / def 1.238 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.187 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.727 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Hatta SC xG
Expected Goals
2.54
Al-Wasl FC xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 13:45 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Hatta SC 0 - 5 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Hatta SC a 13% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 70% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hatta SC and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Al-Wasl FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatta SC and Al-Wasl FC in?
Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-0D-5L in 5 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hatta SC's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Hatta SC's defence, projects 2.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
13%
7.58
17%
5.83
70%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Hatta SC xG
Total xG
3.57
2.54
Al-Wasl FC xG
7.58
13%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
1.44
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
8%
12.65
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
1%
95.87
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Hatta SC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Hatta SC and 2.54 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Hatta SC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 5L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hatta SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 2.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatta SC.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatta SC are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatta SC
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatta SC and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Hatta SC have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 (2.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatta SC
0
Draws
2
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Al-Wasl FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatta SC have won 0, Al-Wasl FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatta SC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when Al-Wasl FC 3-0 Hatta SC.
Who has won more matches between Hatta SC and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatta SC 40%, Al-Wasl FC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Hatta SC and 60% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatta SC have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatta SC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatta SC play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Hatta SC's games and 80% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatta SC vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hatta SC's matches and 60% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Hatta SC and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Hatta SC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Wasl FC run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Hatta SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Hatta SC 0-5 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatta SC 1.04 xG and Al-Wasl FC 2.54 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Hatta SC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 2.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatta SC attack 0.60 / defence 1.24 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatta SC 13% | Draw 17% | Al-Wasl FC 70%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatta SC 60%, Al-Wasl FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatta SC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Hatta SC shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC scored 5 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.