Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Dibba Al-Fujairah welcome Khorfakkan to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 8 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dibba Al-Fujairah — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 5L across 6 games at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium this term (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Dibba Al-Fujairah) versus 0.80 (Khorfakkan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1 for Khorfakkan and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al-Fujairah 73% and Khorfakkan 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 54% | Khorfakkan 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.98 xG and Khorfakkan 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.821 / defence 1.288 | Khorfakkan attack 0.963 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.433. Data: 11 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 37 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 21% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 56%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Khorfakkan 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Khorfakkan (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 83% | Khorfakkan 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 21% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.98 / Khorfakkan 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.821 / def 1.288 | Khorfakkan attack 0.963 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Khorfakkan xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 8 January 2026 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 21% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan?
Record (2 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 1W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dibba Al-Fujairah's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
21%
4.85
23%
4.30
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.76
1.78
Khorfakkan xG
4.85
21%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
3%
28.69
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.78 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dibba Al-Fujairah come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 3D 7L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khorfakkan sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dibba Al-Fujairah's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Khorfakkan have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.45 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Khorfakkan away?
Khorfakkan's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.20 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 2, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Khorfakkan 0-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 80%, Khorfakkan 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 80% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 40% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's matches and 80% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Khorfakkan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.98 xG and Khorfakkan 1.78 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Khorfakkan attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 21% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 56%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Dibba Al-Fujairah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 54%, Khorfakkan 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.